It’s time for the Top 7’s annual look at what will end up being the most overpaid contracts of this upcoming baseball offseason. Taking a look at last year’s list, we had some hits and misses. David Eckstein was correct, Kyle Lohse was not (though his was a one-year contract and now he has a multi-year deal that will probably end badly). (Edit: you can check out the 2006 list here).

Teams pony up what they have to do sign these players, but there are very few cases where the contract works out for the life of it without the player leaving (with the team eating a big chunk of the remaining money), the player sucking (which sometimes isn’t their fault since they are 45 by the time the contract ends), or the player being injured for almost the entire time (Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano). Onto this year’s list.

7. Garret Anderson

This is one of the cases where the reputation as the “clubhouse guy” and the “chemistry guy” could net him a few extra bucks. It’s the same theory behind Barry Larkin’s MVP in 1995.

6. Mark Mulder

Anything that Mulder gets other than a $1 guaranteed contract with $999,999 in incentives is way overpaying him. Mulder for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton is one of the worst trades that the Cardinals have ever made. This spot on the list could also go to Mark Prior, but my Cardinal bias is showing yet again.

5. Francisco Rodriguez

How much money did he make himself by getting 62 saves? What are the chances of him possibly doing that again? 1 in 10,000? 37 of his saves came with leads of two of more runs. His strikeout rate fell last season and a 1.29 WHIP is not exactly Eckersley-in-the-late-80s-and-early-90s territory. Buying a closer simply on his saves total is close to the equivalent of buying a car because of its fine-looking odometer.

4. CC Sabathia

It’s impossible not to be a fan of Sabathia’s—he pitched ridiculously well in his time with the Brewers and toughed out complete game after complete game. But long-term pitching contracts hardly ever work out. Pedro Martinez’s Red Sox contract is really the only highly successful one. There are countless others—Mike Hampton leading the charge—that failed miserably. It’s a matter of philosophy—if Sabathia’s team wins the World Series in the first two or three years of the deal, it’s worth it. But eventually it’s going to wear the team’s payroll down. Unless you’re the Yankees and it doesn’t mean a whole lot.

3. Derek Lowe

Lowe’s case is very similar to Sabathia’s. And since there is nothing else to add to that, how about life imitating wrestling yet again this week!? Sean Avery is suspended for talking bad about an ex-girlfriend, extraordinarily parallel to the 90s suspension of Ravishing Rick Rude for disparaging comments about the Big Bossman’s mother! Awesome!

2. Manny Ramirez

Someone should make a Boras-scale that measures the increase of a contract simply because Scott Boras was the person negotiating. VORA (Value Over Replacement Agent). In some cases, it seems like he gets 30-40% more than what someone could have imagined. Take the Barry Zito contract. The Giants bid against themselves and now they are stuck with an average, at best, pitcher for two more decades. While Manny destroys the ball, it would be silly to think that he can do so for five more seasons guaranteed. Someone will make the mistake…Cub fans already want to dump Alfonso Soriano and he has until 2013.

1. AJ Burnett

He is this year’s JD Drew—he is an oft-injured guy opting out of an overpaid contract in order to get…MORE OVERPAID. I guess that you can call it “over-overpaid.” Makes sense for him, a bit less so for the sucker team dishing it out.

The Top 7 is written by Jason Major. He's locked into a 3 year contract worth $100 and two Cardinals tickets with JoeSportsFan LLC. Email him at jason@joesportsfan.com