JoeSportsFan

steveyoung.jpgIt's about time the NFL helped us all out and simplified the passer rating statistic. I appreciate the nature of the passer rating since it helps to rationalize comparisons of a position dominated by concrete statistics. With that being said, the statistic itself only gains relevance when it's observed in a collective group. Steve Young's frequent 130.0 ratings are meaningless unless they're placed next to Ryan Leaf's occasional 33.3's.

Much ado has been made of Tom Brady's performance on Saturday night against the Jaguars - and rightfully so. 26-28 for 262 yeards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and 1 Bundchen is noteworthy. Headline writers around the globe were quick to throw out adjectives describing Brady's superlative performance.

"Near-Perfect Brady Bounces Jaguars"

"Golden Boy Almost 100% Pure"

Most of the columns that began with this theme were almost assured to subsequently point out that Brady's passer rating for the game came in at a stunning 141.4.

Most everyone - including myself - thought to themselves, "man, that's high". I mean it's higher than 100, which is usually good...but it's way lower than 200. Is that bad? What does the passer rating mean, exactly?

The passer rating system is comprised of 4 main quarterback statistics: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. These components are mixed and mangled to achieve a statistic that top out at 158.3.  You're telling me these fans have any idea what that means?

fansample.jpg


Long story short, the highest passer rating a quarterback can achieve is 158.3 - so the statistic itself is concrete. With that being said, why can't they do everyone a favor and multiply the passer rating by some number so that everyone's passer rating is relative to 100.0 - a ceiling we've all been used to since Kindergarten.

The NFL passer rating is a contrived statistic - meaning it takes actual data from each of the 4 main components and multiples them to a fixed variable that is computed by looking at historical averages. Since this is a contrived statistic, why not take it one step further to make it easier to understand?

passerratingsign.jpgIt works like this: 158.3 is the highest passer rating possible - to make that equal 100.0, we have to multiply it by .6317. In relative terms to 100.0, the general public would have a better perception of how "perfect" a quarterback was on any given day. We like 100. We're comfortable with 100. When I see quarterback ratings above 100.0, it looks like they've been passed through Canada's stupid ass metric system - and that's not fun for anyone.

Running the quarterback through this system produces the career top 5 list below (current NFL standard for passer rating in parenthesis):

1.- Steve Young: 61.14 (96.8)
2.- Kurt Warner: 60.54 (95.7)
3.- Daunte Culpepper: 58.87 (93.2)
4.- Peyton Manning: 58.29 (92.29)
5.- Joe Montana: 58.28 (92.26)

Tom Brady's performance on Sunday would've landed him in the 89.32 range - which is easier to fathom and relate to "perfection" - especially when coupled with some of the league's historical bests. Heck, I'll even throw in a few bonus points for the whole Gisele thing.

.6317

Remember it. Trying to explain this whole process to Sean Salisbury is enough incentive to push for the campaign.
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., January 15, 2008 03:01 PM
In communist Russia, touchdowns make you!
geoff, January 15, 2008 12:01 PM
actually, the NFL ratings are only loosely based on historic averages. the NFL determined them once in the early '70s and uses "round" numbers to calculate the rating. the NCAA on the other hand, actually took a 20 year period to figure out what the adjustments should be. the NFL's ratings should be adjusted to reflect the modern passing game.
Ghosts, January 15, 2008 09:01 AM
I could've sworn I used to rack up like 198 with Warren Moon in Super Tecmo Bowl. How is that possible?
100 is better but still..., January 15, 2008 09:01 AM
100 is better but still... it needs improvement. The passer rating is stupid. For historical context, it might work but creating an artificial max is bogus.

Let's say somebody gets a perfect score of 158.3. Well, whatever numbers it took to get that, are you telling me that that performance is just as good if some other QB completes an extra 10 passes on 10 attempts for another 150 yds with an additional 2 TDs and no INTs (for the day)?

No, no it is not. And I just won't buy it.

The passer rating means nothing if a Wayne Gretzky type QB suddenly showed up and destroyed all perception of a good game by throwing 50 completions on 50 attempts for 600 yards, 8 TDs and 0 INTs. And then he does it over and over. Unlikely but it's possible, so why put a cap on the rating and claim that day is just as good as a 10 for 12, 212 yd, 2 TD and 0 INT day? Or are we living in Communist Russia where there is no real incentive to excel?!
B. Simmons, January 15, 2008 09:01 AM
Giselle is a dirty whore. And, so is Theismann.
3MTA3, January 15, 2008 08:01 AM
If we did everything for the media, Elias, NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL (they are still around, right), would we still need JSF.
Colin Wyers, January 15, 2008 08:01 AM
No reason you can't just do this yourself. Take a look at baseball - fans make up their own statistics all the time. You think MLB or Elias was like, "Let's start using OPS"? Nope. Fans started using it; baseball followed. Sorta.
John Nash, January 15, 2008 05:01 AM
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which no player has anything to gain by changing only his or her own strategy unilaterally.

Put that in your smoke and pipe it.
Jeffrey, January 15, 2008 05:01 AM
Great stuff. .6317.
Peter King, January 15, 2008 04:01 AM
The passer rating formula is flawed. Everybody knows that Brett Favre is #1.

p.s. Where is my JSF MediaSpace?
3MTA3, January 15, 2008 04:01 AM
Look up the passer rating in CFB. It's different the the NFL's.
Sebek, January 15, 2008 03:01 AM
If Jimmy was trying to make a joke, I missed it. Damn writer's strike.
JB, January 15, 2008 03:01 AM
If they do it because they want the Top 5 passer ratings to be close to 100 even though 100 isn't really a significant milestone under the current formula, that would be a pretty dumb reason.

And guys, to be blatantly clear here, just to make sure we're all on the same page - the picture of Joe Theismann holding a sign about the exact thing Sebek was writing about is not real. It's photoshopped.
sursly, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
both of you didn't get the joke Jimmy was trying to make? wow.

this is just speculation, but it could be that the current passer rating system is favored because it sets the career averages of the top five QBs in the mid-nineties range, close to but not topping 100.
Sebek, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
EVERYONE - A round of applause for our friend, Jimmy....who learned a new passer rating formula today and was enlightened by the joys of Photoshop.
Jimmy, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
I know the point of the column jackass. What I was saying is that Sebek isn't the first person to think of the new formula because a man brought a sign to the game with the same numbers and theory.

Geez.
TF, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
Jimmy, I think the point of the column is recognizing that several people think the PR stat is too complicated and would like a simpler point of reference...hence the title of the column.
Sebek, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
TF - Excellent observation. I've never noticed that before. Great use of the word "behemoth" as well.

Jimmy - I...I....don't know how to respond. I hope you're kidding.
TF, January 15, 2008 02:01 AM
Is that Redskins behemoth wearing knuckle dusters?
Jimmy, January 15, 2008 01:01 AM
Obviously you're not the first guy to think of this theory - ya know, since you found a picture of a guy claiming the exact same thing.
Matt V, January 15, 2008 01:01 AM
Why not just say divide by the maximum # 158.3? Each is a 4 digit number equally hard to casually remember.
Cole, January 15, 2008 01:01 AM
I don't think those two pregnant women would appreciate you calling them fat.
Mike R., January 14, 2008 04:01 PM
I've always wondered about this myself. Good stuff and nice to see a "serious post" from Sebek...although he just couldn't resist slipping in a few pictures of fat fans.

(I'm not complaining)

Joe Lefebvre

Whenever Mike Piazza time travels, he goes by the alias "Joe Lefebvre".

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